شبیه‌سازی و ارزیابی اثرات تغییرات کاربری و پوشش اراضی در درون و پیرامون مناطق حفاظت شده استان لرستان، ایران

چکیده مقاله :

پایش و تحلیل تغییرات کاربری و پوشش زمین (LULC) در مناطق حفاظت‌شده و حریم پیرامونی آن‌ها نقش مهمی در مدیریت پایدار زیستگاه‌ها و حفظ تنوع زیستی دارد. این مطالعه تغییرات LULC را در چهار منطقه حفاظت‌شده استان لرستان (قالیکوه، اشترانکوه، سفیدکوه و شادابکوه) و همچنین بافر ۲۰ کیلومتری اطراف آن‌ها در بازه زمانی ۱۹۹۰ تا ۲۰۵۰ بررسی می‌کند. نوآوری اصلی تحقیق، تحلیل همزمان داخل مناطق حفاظت‌شده و حوزه نفوذ پیرامونی برای تفکیک دقیق‌تر فشارهای درون‌زا و برون‌زا و شناخت بهتر اثرات انسانی است. نقشه‌های LULC با ترکیب تصاویر ماهواره‌ای Landsat و محصول جهانی GLC_FCS30 با دقت ۳۰ متر تهیه شد. پیش‌بینی تغییرات تا سال ۲۰۵۰ با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون لجستیک در نرم‌افزار TerrSet انجام گرفت. برای تحلیل دقیق تغییرات در چهار منطقه حفاظت‌شده استان لرستان و بافر ۲۰ کیلومتری پیرامون آن‌ها، آزمون‌های آماری فریدمن، ویلکاکسون، آزمون نسبت‌ها و کای‌اسکوئر (مقایسه دوتایی) در محیط نرم‌افزار SPSS به‌کار گرفته شد. این آزمون‌ها به منظور بررسی معنی داری تغییرات LULC در داخل مناطق حفاظت‌شده و حوزه نفوذ پیرامونی اجرا شدند و سطح معنی‌داری ۵ درصد لحاظ شد. نتایج نشان داد که در داخل مناطق حفاظت‌شده، تغییرات معنی‌داری به ویژه در طبقات انسان‌ساخت و کشاورزی رخ داده است و پوشش جنگلی و منابع آبی نسبتاً پایدارتر بوده‌اند. همچنین، فشارهای انسانی در بافر پیرامونی افزایش یافته و موجب گسترش کاربری‌های انسان‌ساخت و کشاورزی شده است. این یافته‌ها ضرورت مدیریت یکپارچه فراتر از مرزهای رسمی مناطق حفاظت‌شده، استفاده از فناوری‌های نوین سنجش‌ازدور و مشارکت فعال جوامع محلی برای حفاظت پایدار منابع طبیعی را نشان می‌دهد.

چکیده انگلیسی :

Monitoring and analyzing land use and land cover (LULC) changes in protected areas and their surrounding buffer zones play an important role in sustainable habitat management and biodiversity conservation. This study examines LULC changes in four protected areas of Lorestan Province, Iran (Ghalikouh, Oshtorankouh, Sefidkouh, and Shadabkouh), together with a 20-kilometer buffer zone, over the period 1990–2050. The key novelty of this research lies in the simultaneous analysis of both the protected areas and their adjacent zones, enabling a clearer distinction between internal and external pressures and a deeper understanding of human-induced impacts. LULC maps were generated by integrating Landsat satellite imagery with the global GLC_FCS30 product at a 30-meter resolution. Future changes up to 2050 were projected using logistic regression modeling in TerrSet software. To assess the significance of LULC changes within the protected areas and their surrounding buffers, statistical tests including Friedman, Wilcoxon, proportion tests, and Chi-square were performed in SPSS at a 5% significance level. The results indicated significant changes inside the protected areas, particularly in built-up and agricultural classes, whereas forest cover and water bodies remained relatively stable. In addition, human pressures in the surrounding buffers intensified, resulting in the expansion of built-up and agricultural land uses. These findings emphasize the necessity of integrated management beyond the official boundaries of protected areas, the use of advanced remote sensing technologies, and active participation of local communities to ensure sustainable conservation of natural resources.

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